Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 020528
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.
...Lower Sabine River Valley...
Large-scale upper trough currently located over the southwestern US
will translate downstream into the southern Rockies during the
overnight hours. Resultant weak mid-level height falls will spread
across the southern High Plains region as polar air surges south
across TX. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected along the cold front
but a weak wave should develop across south TX then translate to
near the upper TX Coast by the end of the period. Modified
boundary-layer moisture over the Gulf Basin will advance north such
that lower-mid 60s surface dew points will return to southern
LA/MS/AL; however, forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy
will still be lacking. Profiles depict modest MUCAPE if lifting a
parcel just above the shallow boundary layer. While mid-level lapse
rates should not be especially steep (7.5 C/km), buoyancy will be
more than adequate for robust elevated updrafts late in the period,
especially near the weak wave. Wind profiles also favor sustained
updrafts and a few weak supercells will likely evolve during the
overnight period. Given the modest low-level moisture return and the
likelihood for this activity to be elevated, at this time it appears
small hail would be the greatest risk with overnight convection. For
these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/02/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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