Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 030043
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the Four Corners
and the mid-level trough will pivot east into the High Plains by
early Thursday morning. A surface front located over the northwest
Gulf Coast into the OH Valley will gradually move southeast tonight.
The area of potential convective interest for a strong thunderstorm
will likely be relegated to the Gulf Coast near the TX/LA border.
The Wednesday evening raob from Lake Charles, LA showed relatively
stunted lapse rates limiting buoyancy despite a gradual moistening
of the low-level profile. Current expectation is for general
thunderstorms to develop later this evening into the overnight over
the northwest Gulf Coast and persist into early Thursday morning.
..Smith.. 02/03/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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