SPC AC 041256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal today over the
   conterminous U.S.

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid/upper-level pattern will trend toward eastern troughing
   again through the period, as two primary shortwave perturbations
   phase:
   1.  A northern-stream trough now over MN and the eastern Dakotas,
   forecast to dig southeastward to the central Appalachians and
   amplify by 12Z tomorrow.
   2.  A southern-stream trough evident in moisture-channel imagery
   from central KS across the TX Panhandle, south-central NM and
   southeastern AZ.  This feature will maintain substantially positive
   tilt as it shifts eastward to GA, central AL, southern MS, and
   southwestern LA by the end of the period.

   A surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across northern VA, western
   NC, western GA, and the western FL Panhandle -- will move eastward
   to southeastward, offshore from New England by 00Z.  At that time,
   the front should extend from the Hampton Roads region across the
   eastern Carolinas to near coastal GA, and over extreme northern
   peninsular FL.  By 12Z, the front will have cleared all the Atlantic
   Coast except central FL, extending from there southwestward over the
   south-central Gulf.

   ...Coastal NC to northeastern FL...
   Widely scattered to scattered non-severe thunderstorms have been
   common just ahead of the front through the preceding overnight
   hours, over parts of GA, AL and the FL Panhandle.  This convection
   should persist through the afternoon with minor intensification
   possible, until the front passes offshore from GA and the Carolinas.
    Isolated gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out;
   however, the severe threat appears too weak to maintain an
   unconditional outlook over coastal GA.  With large-scale ascent
   lagging the front and prefrontal convective band, temperatures aloft
   and related weak mid/upper-level lapse rates should not change much
   above the front at any given latitude.  A pronounced stable layer in
   midlevels (500-600 mb) -- observed in 12Z TLH/CHS soundings, is
   forecast to remain along/ahead of the convective band through the
   afternoon.  With northward extent, already modest low-level
   destabilization will weaken, and prefrontal surface winds should
   veer gradually with time, shrinking hodographs.  A corridor of
   200-700 J/kg MLCAPE is expected, amidst 20-30-kt effective-shear
   magnitudes and around 35-45-kt cloud-layer shear.

   ..Edwards/Goss.. 02/04/2022

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