Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 041627
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or
tonight.
...Coastal North Carolina to northern Florida...
At least weak height falls will influence the region, particularly
into tonight, owing to dual upper troughs amidst split upper-level
flow. A linear band of convection across southern/eastern Georgia
into northern Florida has continued to weaken this morning and
largely lose its organizational integrity along with diminishing
lightning flashes and warming cloud tops. Moderate heating and cloud
breaks precede the eastward-moving cold front, and more so, the
decaying convective line. While modest diurnal destabilization may
lead to isolated thunderstorm redevelopment across southeast Georgia
into the coastal Carolinas, factors such as weakening near-frontal
convergence and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to keep the
potential for severe storms low.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 02/04/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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