Feb 4, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 4 19:55:10 UTC 2022 (20220204 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220204 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220204 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220204 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220204 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220204 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041955

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or
   tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   Convection across southeast Georgia and into far north Florida has
   had a modest intensity increase over the past hour or so.
   Nonetheless, lightning is still quite sparse, likely due to the weak
   mid-level lapse rates across the region. Therefore, updraft
   intensity will likely remain too weak to support severe convection.

   An area of weak surface based instability remains across eastern
   North Carolina. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weakening convergence
   along the cold front should keep any thunderstorm threat isolated
   this afternoon/evening.

   ..Bentley.. 02/04/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022/

   ...Coastal North Carolina to northern Florida...
   At least weak height falls will influence the region, particularly
   into tonight, owing to dual upper troughs amidst split upper-level
   flow. A linear band of convection across southern/eastern Georgia
   into northern Florida has continued to weaken this morning and
   largely lose its organizational integrity along with diminishing
   lightning flashes and warming cloud tops. Moderate heating and cloud
   breaks precede the eastward-moving cold front, and more so, the
   decaying convective line. While modest diurnal destabilization may
   lead to isolated thunderstorm redevelopment across southeast Georgia
   into the coastal Carolinas, factors such as weakening near-frontal
   convergence and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to keep the
   potential for severe storms low.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z