Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 050041
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Fri Feb 04 2022
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will move east to the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states by early Saturday morning. A cold
front will continue to sag southeast across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the coastal Southeast. A stray thunderstorm or two is
possible over north FL this evening and perhaps near the Outer Banks
late tonight in a weakly unstable airmass. However, thunderstorm
coverage will likely remain below 10-percent CONUS-wide through
tonight.
..Smith.. 02/05/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z