Feb 5, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 5 12:32:11 UTC 2022 (20220205 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220205 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220205 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220205 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220205 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220205 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051232

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 AM CST Sat Feb 05 2022

   Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the conterminous U.S. today
   and tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   Synoptic troughing in the upper-air pattern will lose amplitude in
   the East and strengthen in the central CONUS, as:
   1.  A strong trough now extending from southern QC to the Carolinas
   moves rapidly offshore by 00Z, and
   2.  A series of shortwave perturbations contribute to general
   amplification of cyclonic height curvature across the
   northern/central Rockies and central Plains.

   Meanwhile, a southern-stream perturbation -- evident in moisture-
   channel imagery over central parts of MS/LA to the TX Gulf Coast --
   will move east-northeastward to the Carolinas and GA through 12Z
   tomorrow.  This feature will remain well behind a surface cold front
   now over south-central FL, and forecast to move southward through
   the Keys this evening.  In the meantime, a few showers are possible
   near the front, though associated lift will be weakening with time. 
   Weakness of both low-level convergence and lapse rates aloft (per
   stable layer near 600 mb in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings) indicates minimal
   overland thunderstorm potential.  Otherwise, the strong, post-
   frontal, continental/polar anticyclone will render the CONUS air
   mass too day and/or stable for thunderstorms.

   ..Edwards.. 02/05/2022

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