Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051950
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Feb 05 2022
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. through
tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few showers
have developed across parts of south FL this afternoon in a weak
instability environment. But, sustained convection capable of
producing lightning flashes still appears unlikely.
..Gleason.. 02/05/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Feb 05 2022/
...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is expected across
the CONUS. Scattered low-topped showers should develop near a cold
front drifting south across south FL. Very poor mid-level lapse
rates (less than 5 C/km) owing to a relatively warm/stable layer
near 600 mb per 12Z MFL/KEY soundings suggest most of the convection
will remain low-topped, with negligible probabilities for deeper
updrafts producing lightning.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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