Feb 6, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 6 04:58:24 UTC 2022 (20220206 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220206 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220206 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220206 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220206 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220206 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060458

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 PM CST Sat Feb 05 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States
   today.

   ...Synopsis...
   A highly amplified pattern will exist today with a high over the
   West and an extensive positive-tilt trough over the Plains.  A broad
   belt of southwest flow aloft will exist over the East, with a
   southern-stream shortwave trough diving into west TX and northern
   Mexico late.

   At the surface, a substantial high will exist over the West, with
   another ridge lingering across the East. Offshore flow will persist
   across the Gulf of Mexico, but a weak low will develop just off the
   coastal Southeast. While weak instability may favor a few
   thunderstorms over the ocean, little instability or lift will exist
   over the FL Peninsula, thus thunderstorms are not forecast there.

   Elsewhere, moistening in the midlevels will occur across Deep South
   TX overnight in association with the approaching upper wave.
   Forecast soundings suggest very small amounts of elevated CAPE may
   develop, rooted above 650 mb, but the threat of thunderstorms
   appears negligible.

   ..Jewell/Moore.. 02/06/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z