Feb 6, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 6 12:37:03 UTC 2022 (20220206 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220206 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220206 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220206 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220206 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220206 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061237

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 AM CST Sun Feb 06 2022

   Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States
   today.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A series of shortwave troughs will contribute to a high-amplitude,
   positively tilted, slowly progressive, synoptic-scale trough this
   period from the Upper Midwest and Great lakes to northwestern MX. 
   Downstream, a shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel
   imagery over portions of the Carolinas and southern GA -- will move
   offshore by early afternoon.  An associated frontal-wave low was
   analyzed at 11Z just offshore from the east-central FL coastline,
   with strengthening warm front extending northeastward.  The low
   should migrate erratically northward today and tonight, remaining
   atop Atlantic waters in or near the Gulf Stream, while warm
   frontogenesis continues northeast of the low (also over water). 
   Boundary-layer modification/destabilization along and east of the
   trailing cold/stationary front, and near the warm front, will enable
   some thunderstorm potential.  However, thunderstorms should remain
   over water for the rest of this period.

   ..Edwards.. 02/06/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z