Feb 6, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 6 16:30:43 UTC 2022 (20220206 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220206 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220206 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220206 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220206 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220206 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CST Sun Feb 06 2022

   Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States
   today or tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   An amplified large-scale pattern will remain over the CONUS with a
   general prevalence of positive-tilt troughing east of the Rockies
   with an upper ridge centered over California and the nearby
   Southwest. Cool/cold temperatures and continental trajectories will
   considerably limit deep convection and thunderstorm potential across
   the CONUS. Some thunderstorms will remain a possibility offshore of
   the South Atlantic Coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream, potentially
   spanning the offshore Atlantic waters east of Florida to the
   Carolinas through tonight.

   ..Guyer.. 02/06/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z