Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 071954
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Mon Feb 07 2022
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States
through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A surface low
just off the NC Coast this afternoon is expected to continue
developing northeastward over the western Atlantic through the end
of the period. Minimal instability is present over land, and greater
low-level moisture should remain just off the Outer Banks in NC.
Overall thunderstorm potential still appears to be less than 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/07/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 07 2022/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
An amplified large-scale pattern will continue over the CONUS
through tonight, highlighted by multiple shortwave impulses embedded
within mean longwave troughing east of the Rockies. The continued
prevalence of cool/cold continental trajectories will preclude deep
convection and the potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS.
However, isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the open
waters of the western Atlantic today and tonight, particularly near
an east/northeastward-moving deepening surface low and cold front.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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