Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 091945
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Wed Feb 09 2022
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Gleason.. 02/09/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
An amplified large-scale pattern will persist with the continuance
of mean longwave troughing east of the Rockies. The CONUS-wide
prevalence of cool/stable conditions will likely preclude
thunderstorm development. That said, a few thunderstorms will remain
a possibility offshore near a front near/just east of the Florida
Keys and south Florida.
Elsewhere, across the Ohio Valley, while low/mid-level lapse rates
will be rather steep (> 7 C/km) with daytime heating/mixing,
low-level moisture will be quite limited within the continental
polar air mass. The scenario should be insufficient for deep
convection/lightning this afternoon/early evening across northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio and vicinity.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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