Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 110528
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from a small portion of Deep South Texas, the risk for
thunderstorms appears low across much of the contiguous United
States Friday.
...Deep South TX...
Weak mid-level short-wave trough is digging across TX late this
evening. This feature should maintain weak low-level warm advection
across deep south TX such that profiles will likely remain moist
near 850mb as mid-level lapse rates remain steep and 700mb
temperatures cool. Modest MUCAPE is forecast to develop near the
international border that will support elevated convection capable
of producing lightning. NAM forecast sounding for HRL at 17z
exhibits around 500 J/kg if lifting a parcel just above 850mb. With
little inhibition, isolated thunderstorms appear possible, primarily
from late morning into the early evening hours.
Late in the period, air mass destabilization is expected across the
northwestern Gulf Basin toward the upper TX Coast. If the surging
cold front accelerates into this region before sunrise there may be
an outside chance for a few thunderstorms along the wind shift. At
this time will not include this portion of the TX Coast in thunder
probabilities.
..Darrow/Moore.. 02/11/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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