Feb 11, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 11 12:28:35 UTC 2022 (20220211 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220211 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220211 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220211 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220211 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220211 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111228

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022

   Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late today through Saturday
   morning along the Texas coast and into southeast Texas.

   ...Northwest Gulf coast, mainly overnight...
   In the wake of a surface cyclone crossing the upper Great Lakes, a
   cold front will surge southeastward into the central/southern Plains
   and mid MS Valley by tonight.  Ahead of the cold front, gradual air
   mass modification and a weak return flow cycle will continue from
   the western Gulf of Mexico into coastal areas of TX.  Surface-based
   buoyancy is expected near the lower TX coast within the small moist
   sector by later this afternoon, but nebulous forcing for ascent and
   some lingering convective inhibition suggest that storm coverage
   this afternoon/evening will be rather sparse at best.  Late tonight,
   weak low-level warm advection and ascent, downstream from a midlevel
   shortwave trough digging south-southeastward from MT to the southern
   High Plains, could support elevated thunderstorm development as far
   north as interior southeast TX from about 09-12z. 

   ...Southeast FL this afternoon into tonight...
   Air mass modification in a weak easterly flow regime will contribute
   to the potential for some shallow convection near and just off the
   southeast FL coast.  However, convective depth will likely be too
   shallow to support charge separation/lightning.

   ..Thompson.. 02/11/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z