Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 120030
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly later tonight across
parts of east and southeast Texas.
...TX...
Isolated lightning has been mostly confined to offshore regions over
the western Gulf Basin ahead of a weak short-wave trough that is
digging into this region. Primary corridor of ascent, coincident
with higher buoyancy, should result in thunderstorms mostly off the
TX Coast through the end of the period. However, surface wind shift
is surging across the southern Plains and frontal ascent may prove
sufficient for elevated convection after midnight across portions of
east/southeast TX. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted
at/above 850mb could attain levels necessary for the generation of
lightning. For these reasons will maintain a low probability for
thunderstorms later tonight.
..Darrow.. 02/12/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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