Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 120522
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south
Florida and coastal/east Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.
...TX and South FL...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an area of large-scale
forcing for ascent across the central High Plains within an exit
region of a digging 500mb speed max. This feature is forecast to
move across far west TX before translating through the base of the
digging short wave into the northwestern Gulf Basin during the
overnight hours. This mid-level short wave should induce a surface
wave along a surging cold front that will advance into deep South TX
by 18z, then shift southeast and remain relatively weak as it
settles into the southern Basin by the end of the period. Modest
buoyancy is forecast to develop across deep south TX early and
frontal ascent may contribute to weak elevated convection atop the
surging frontal zone. A few robust updrafts may actually develop
just off the south TX Coast as this boundary interacts with somewhat
higher instability. At this time indications are convection over
land should remain sub-severe.
Downstream, surface front is forecast to advance across the FL
Panhandle into the eastern Gulf Basin with a pre-frontal confluence
zone expected to evolve well ahead of the front over the western FL
Straits across the southern Peninsula. This pre-frontal confluence
zone may encourage a few thunderstorms, and while deep-layer flow is
expected to be strong, low-level shear will be marginal and
buoyancy/forcing appear inadequate for severe.
..Darrow/Moore.. 02/12/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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