Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 121248
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south
Florida and coastal/east Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.
...Synopsis...
A series of low-amplitude, midlevel shortwave troughs will move
eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico, in advance of an upstream
trough moving from the southern High Plains to the lower MS Valley.
Isolated/elevated storms are ongoing this morning across interior
southeast TX, and the 12z CRP/BRO soundings suggest that the
potential for additional thunderstorms will persist into this
afternoon along the cold front surging southeastward toward the TX
coast. Otherwise, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over
the open Gulf of Mexico through the day, though this convection
should remain offshore expect for late in the period across
southwest FL. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms may occur along
a confluence zone/modifying frontal segment that will drift west to
near the southeast FL coast by this afternoon.
..Thompson.. 02/12/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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