SPC AC 121558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0958 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022

   Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and
   coastal/east Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...

   A series of midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate across the Gulf
   of Mexico region ahead of the larger-scale mid/upper trough ejecting
   eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. At the
   surface, a cold front is oriented just offshore from the
   Middle/Upper TX coast southwestward into far south TX. Most
   thunderstorm activity the remainder of the day will remain over the
   open Gulf waters ahead of the front. However, forecast soundings
   continue to indicate warm advection atop the shallow near-surface
   cool layer, supporting isolated, mostly elevated thunderstorms from
   south TX, northeast along the TX coast into parts of southeast TX
   for a few more hours. 

   Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening across
   southeast FL along a modified front/low-level confluence zone.
   Heating along this boundary will result in weak destabilization amid
   moderate effective shear. However, weak 0-3 km flow and poor
   midlevel lapse rates will limit severe potential. As the upper
   trough of the Plains ejects eastward toward the Lower MS Valley
   overnight and the surface cold front pushes east across the Gulf,
   additional thunderstorms are possible late in the period across
   southwest FL and the Keys.

   ..Leitman.. 02/12/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z