Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 130021
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across parts of south
Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...FL...
Weak pre-frontal confluence zone remains draped across south FL
early this evening. This boundary will continue to be the primary
demarcation for potential convection through sunrise. 00z sounding
from MFL exhibited modest instability with SBCAPE around 1400 J/kg,
and a warm advection profile. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest convection may evolve along the aforementioned boundary
tonight, and while deep-layer flow does seem supportive of possible
organized updrafts, low-level shear is weak and severe thunderstorms
are not forecast.
..Darrow.. 02/13/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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