Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 130515
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida early
Sunday but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...FL...
Low-latitude short-wave trough will dig into the base of the eastern
US trough early in the period and lose its identity within the
larger height field. This larger-scale evolution will encourage
primary corridor of low-level confluence to shift off the southern
FL Peninsula around 18z. Prior to this, plume of higher PW will
advance northeast ahead of the wind shift and despite the poor lapse
rates, adequate buoyancy will be present for deep convection and
lightning within the strongest cores. While mid- high-level flow
will be supportive of organized updrafts, lowest 3km shear will
remain weak and the prospect for severe appears negligible with
longer-lived cells. Greatest risk for thunderstorms will be during
the first 6hr of the period and by early afternoon most storms will
be offshore.
..Darrow/Moore.. 02/13/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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