Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141931
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from western Oregon towards
northeast California and northwest Nevada through tonight.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook remains on track with a few thunderstorms
possible across parts of Oregon, northeast CA and northwest NV into
tonight. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 02/14/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022/
...OR/northeast CA/northwest NV...
A vigorous shortwave trough near the WA coast will dig south into
northern CA by 12Z. Substantial steepening of low to mid-level lapse
rates will occur as the mid-level cold pool (-30 to -35 C at 500 mb)
approaches. This should support meager surface-based buoyancy amid
40s surface dew points, mainly along and west of the Cascades across
western OR. A few lower-topped showers might sufficiently deepen for
sporadic lightning flashes later this afternoon into this evening in
the zone of ascent immediately preceding the shortwave trough.
Low-end thunder potential may linger tonight as the marginally
supportive environment spreads towards the OR/CA/NV border.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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