SPC AC 150501

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon into the
   evening from parts of central Nevada toward the Coastal Range in
   southern California. Severe weather is unlikely.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   The primary feature of interest today will be a strong shortwave
   trough which will drop south across the Great Basin and into
   southern CA, with closed low translating south/southeastward across
   interior parts of the state. At the surface, a weak low will develop
   over southern NV ahead of a cold front.

   The combination of daytime heating, cold air aloft and lift near the
   front may result in sporadic, low-topped convection across
   south-central NV by afternoon, but instability will be quite weak
   averaging 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE.

   Farther south, the cold core near the upper low will move across
   southern CA after 00Z, nearing the lower CO Valley by 12Z Wednesday.
   A few thunderstorms will be possible from the Coastal Range
   northeastward toward the aforementioned NV regime. The very cold
   temperatures aloft may counteract loss of heating, while westerly
   low-level upslope aids lift locally. Storm tops are expected to
   remain below the stronger winds aloft, however, very small hail
   cannot be ruled out with a storm or two over the higher terrain of
   southern CA.

   ..Jewell/Moore.. 02/15/2022

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