Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151234
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon into early
tonight from parts of central Nevada toward the Coastal Range in
southern California.
...Synopsis...
A deep midlevel trough will progress southeastward over CA/NV and
will reach the lower CO River valley by Wednesday morning. Cold
midlevel temperatures and associated steep lapse rates will support
the potential for low-topped convection and isolated lightning
flashes both from east of the southern Sierra Nevada into northwest
AZ this afternoon into early tonight, and across southern CA.
Otherwise, air mass modification and the early stages of return flow
are underway across the Gulf basin and FL Straits. However, the
degree of moistening inland will be insufficient for deep convection
until later in the D2 period across the southern Plains and south
FL.
..Thompson.. 02/15/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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