Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151923
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southwest
States, mainly during the late afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Aside from minor adjustments to the thunder areas over the
California/Nevada/Arizona area, no changes appear necessary at this
time, with prior outlook reasoning still reflective of current
convective expectations.
..Goss.. 02/15/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/
...Southwest...
A deep mid-level low over central CA will progress towards the CA/AZ
border area by 12Z. Cold mid-level temperatures, peaking from -25 to
-30 C at 500 mb, and associated steep lapse rates will support the
potential for low-topped convection and sporadic lightning flashes
from central/southern NV into northwest AZ and across coastal
southern CA, mainly from later this afternoon through the evening.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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