Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
58,922
9,181,147
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
94,595
5,412,464
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
38,248
2,282,533
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...
SPC AC 160542
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible late this
evening into early Thursday morning across parts of Oklahoma and
north Texas. Hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple brief
tornadoes are the primary hazards.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone over the Southwest is forecast to
gradually weaken as it moves eastward today, and eventually eject as
a shortwave trough into the southern Plains late tonight. In
conjunction with this system, a surface low will deepen during the
day across the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will
move southward through the period across portions of the
central/southern Plains and Midwest, with the primary surface low
expected to move east-northeastward along this boundary late
tonight.
...Oklahoma/North Texas...
Boundary-layer moisture will gradually increase across the southern
Plains through the period, as low-level southerly flow intensifies
in response to the deepening surface cyclone. The warm sector should
remain capped through the day, but elevated convection will likely
develop this evening across western OK into northwest TX, as the
midlevel shortwave trough begins ejecting across the region. Late
tonight, some upscale growth is possible as convection consolidates
and the surface low and attendant Pacific cold front move eastward
across parts of OK/north TX.
Despite relatively limited buoyancy (MUCAPE generally in the
500-1000 J/kg range), cold midlevel temperatures, steep midlevel
lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some hail
threat with the strongest initial development. The hail threat may
tend to decrease with time as storms take on a more linear mode, but
increasing low/midlevel flow will support a damaging-wind risk with
the stronger linear segments that develop overnight. Low-level shear
will also become sufficient to support a line-embedded brief tornado
threat, conditional on convection becoming rooted and sustained near
the surface. Any such threat is most likely to materialize near and
just south of the surface-cyclone track overnight.
...Northeast TX into western AR...
Further east across northeast TX/western AR, pre-frontal convection
may increase prior to 12Z Thursday morning, as an intensifying
low-level jet becomes focused into this region. Supercell
development cannot be ruled out within this regime, but with an
initially strong cap in place and limited buoyancy (MLCAPE generally
500 J/kg or less), potential for organized deep convection prior to
the end of the period remains highly uncertain. For now, a highly
conditional Marginal Risk has been maintained across this region.
..Dean/Moore.. 02/16/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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