Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
MARGINAL
94,380
5,730,632
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Mesquite, TX...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
22,858
856,994
Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
2 %
68,711
10,778,277
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
66,186
8,760,769
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
99,117
5,952,247
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Mesquite, TX...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
41,059
2,304,695
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...
SPC AC 161246
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes will be possible overnight across north Texas and
southern/central Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains overnight...
In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, air mass
modification/return flow is underway across the Gulf basin and
western Caribbean. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will
spread inland/northward from the TX/LA coasts to the Red River and
southern AR by tonight. The moisture advection will occur in
advance of a lee cyclone that will develop eastward from the TX
South Plains to southeast OK, downstream of a midlevel shortwave
trough (now over the lower CO River valley) that will eject
northeastward from the TX Big Bend. The rather modest low-level
moisture, stratus slowing surface heating, and relatively warm
temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorm development during the
day across the southern Plains.
By tonight, the steeper midlevel lapse rates and cooler profiles
aloft will overspread the returning low-level moisture, near and
just east of the remnant lee cyclone/triple point. By 03-06z,
thunderstorm development will become likely across northwest TX and
western OK, and convection will subsequently spread
east-northeastward into central/eastern OK and north/northeast TX
through the end of the period. Relatively cold midlevel
temperatures (roughly -18 C at 500 mb) and midlevel lapse rates in
excess of 8 C/km will contribute to MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
(especially in OK), and the potential for large hail with embedded
cells/clusters in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for
supercells. For areas that remain in the surface warm sector
(mainly south of I-44 where low-level shear will be stronger),
embedded supercells or QLCS mesovortices could produce a couple of
tornadoes overnight. Otherwise, the strongest embedded cells and
bowing segments will also pose the threat for occasional damaging
gusts.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 02/16/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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