Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
MARGINAL
93,079
5,840,711
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Mesquite, TX...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
24,877
921,357
Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
2 %
67,096
10,732,899
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
66,186
8,760,769
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
90,423
5,832,278
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Mesquite, TX...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
38,533
2,194,460
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...
SPC AC 161628
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OK AND
NORTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes with scattered damaging winds and large hail will
be possible overnight into early morning across north Texas and
southern to eastern Oklahoma.
...OK and north TX...
Minimal change apparent for the overnight severe episode expected to
develop across western north TX and spread across south-central into
eastern OK by 12Z, with all severe hazards possible.
Low-level air mass modification will continue beneath an initially
stout elevated mixed-layer as sampled by regional 12Z soundings.
Boundary-layer dew points in the low to mid 60s have reached
south-central TX and will further advect towards the Red River
Valley by tonight. This moisture advection will occur in advance of
a lee cyclone that will develop east from the TX South Plains and
reach the south-central OK/north TX border area overnight,
downstream of a compact and vigorous mid-level shortwave trough that
will eject east from southwest AZ to the southern High Plains.
Large-scale ascent will increase substantially tonight with approach
of this wave overspreading the returning low-level moisture, near
and just east of the surface cyclone/triple point.
Between 03-06Z, thunderstorm development will be likely across
northwest TX and western OK, and convection will subsequently become
widespread as it moves east-northeast into central/eastern OK and
north/northeast TX through the end of the period, to the north of an
80-90 kt 500-mb jet evolving from the Trans-Pecos to north-central
TX. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures and very steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will contribute to warm-sector MLCAPE
reaching 500-1000 J/kg. The strongly forced ascent in addition to
some initial weakness in the hodograph around 700 mb should tend to
favor upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells.
The northern portion of the convective development in central OK
will likely be undercut by progression of the polar cold front.
While areas farther south will have the greatest opportunity to
produce a couple tornadoes and scattered strong to severe winds with
a few embedded supercells and bowing segments.
..Grams/Squitieri.. 02/16/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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