SPC AC 161942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered damaging winds and hail will be possible overnight, along
   with potential for a couple of tornadoes, into early morning across
   north Texas and southern to eastern Oklahoma.

   ...Discussion...
   No appreciable changes appear to be necessary at this time, with
   either outlook areas or reasoning, as current expectations remain in
   line with prior thinking.  Storm development later this evening,
   across parts of western Oklahoma and western/central Texas, will
   then expand/spread eastward overnight.  As this occurs, an areally
   limited but all-hazards risk expected to evolve, and continue
   through the end of the period.

   ..Goss.. 02/16/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022/

   ...OK and north TX...
   Minimal change apparent for the overnight severe episode expected to
   develop across western north TX and spread across south-central into
   eastern OK by 12Z, with all severe hazards possible.

   Low-level air mass modification will continue beneath an initially
   stout elevated mixed-layer as sampled by regional 12Z soundings.
   Boundary-layer dew points in the low to mid 60s have reached
   south-central TX and will further advect towards the Red River
   Valley by tonight. This moisture advection will occur in advance of
   a lee cyclone that will develop east from the TX South Plains and
   reach the south-central OK/north TX border area overnight,
   downstream of a compact and vigorous mid-level shortwave trough that
   will eject east from southwest AZ to the southern High Plains.
   Large-scale ascent will increase substantially tonight with approach
   of this wave overspreading the returning low-level moisture, near
   and just east of the surface cyclone/triple point.

   Between 03-06Z, thunderstorm development will be likely across
   northwest TX and western OK, and convection will subsequently become
   widespread as it moves east-northeast into central/eastern OK and
   north/northeast TX through the end of the period, to the north of an
   80-90 kt 500-mb jet evolving from the Trans-Pecos to north-central
   TX. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures and very steep 700-500 mb
   lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will contribute to warm-sector MLCAPE
   reaching 500-1000 J/kg. The strongly forced ascent in addition to
   some initial weakness in the hodograph around 700 mb should tend to
   favor upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells.
   The northern portion of the convective development in central OK
   will likely be undercut by progression of the polar cold front.
   While areas farther south will have the greatest opportunity to
   produce a couple tornadoes and scattered strong to severe winds with
   a few embedded supercells and bowing segments.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z