Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
MARGINAL
89,362
5,860,637
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Mesquite, TX...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
27,566
1,005,189
Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
2 %
64,407
10,649,066
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
66,147
8,760,665
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
91,094
5,846,077
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Mesquite, TX...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
35,711
2,143,279
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...
SPC AC 170051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Mainly damaging winds and hail are expected overnight and into the
early morning across north Texas and across Oklahoma, reaching into
western Arkansas late. A brief tornado or two may also occur.
...Northern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas...
Little change was made to the previous outlook, as the bulk of the
storm activity is expected to form later tonight. Latest models
indicate that storms will form around 06Z over northwest Texas near
and north of the surface low, extending into southwest/west-central
Oklahoma along the cold front.
Forecast soundings indicate that the warm sector will remain capped
until lift along the front and low arrive. When this occurs, an
expanding area of rain and storms will result, with storm
interactions likely. A supercell or two will be possible ahead of
the cold front and in association with the surface low, and this is
the most favorable corridor for severe storms.
..Jewell.. 02/17/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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