Feb 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 18 05:21:23 UTC 2022 (20220218 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220218 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220218 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220218 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220218 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220218 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180521

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Atlantic States
   southward into Florida during the day. Severe weather is not
   expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A strong midlevel speed max associated with a positive-tilt trough
   will sweep across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the day,
   moving offshore by late afternoon. At the surface, a low over Maine
   and New Brunswick will quickly move northeast, with a cold front
   trailing southwestward. This front will extend roughly from New
   Jersey into the central Carolinas and Georgia at 12Z Friday, moving
   offshore by 21Z except for over northern Florida.

   Despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints initially ahead of the front from
   the Carolinas to northern Florida, there will be minimal opportunity
   for destabilization. Forecast soundings depict poor lapse rates in
   the low and midlevels, with perhaps 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE developing
   prior to frontal passage. While scattered showers and a few embedded
   thunderstorms will be possible, they are not expected to become
   severe prior to the front moving offshore.

   ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/18/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z