Feb 18, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 18 12:52:45 UTC 2022 (20220218 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220218 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220218 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220218 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220218 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220218 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181252

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0652 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from the coastal Carolinas
   to northern Florida.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   In mid/upper levels, mean troughing will persist from the Canadian
   Arctic Islands and Hudson Bay to the east-central CONUS through the
   period.  Initially, a positively tilted trough and associated
   lengthy vorticity banner were apparent from southern ON across parts
   of the Ohio Valley to the Ozarks, northwest TX and northwestern MX.
   This feature will elongate further and weaken, with its northern
   portion moving offshore from New England and the Mid-Atlantic, while
   the southern part slowly loses definition within a broad cyclonic-
   flow field.  A trailing/northern-stream shortwave trough -- evident
   in moisture-channel imagery from southern MB to northwestern MN --
   will reach southeastern ON and southern Lower MI by 12Z tomorrow. 

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across portions of
   New England, the near-coastal Mid-Atlantic, central VA, western SC,
   the west-central FL Panhandle, and the north-central/west-central
   Gulf.  This front will move offshore from all but northern FL by
   03Z, then southeastward to south-central FL by 12Z.  Isolated
   thunderstorms will remain possible in a narrow band of mostly
   prefrontal convection now located from coastal NC to the eastern FL
   Panhandle.  With nearly front-parallel flow aloft, poor mid/upper-
   level lapse rates, weakening large-scale to frontal-scale lift, and
   veering prefrontal surface winds with time, severe potential appears
   minimal, despite lingering strong flow aloft.  

   In the continental/polar air mass behind that cold front, another
   low (associated with the MB/MN perturbation aloft) was drawn over
   extreme southern MB, with cold front across northern parts of ND/MT.
   The latter front is forecast to sweep southward/southeastward over
   the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and lower/middle Missouri Valley, to
   near the Ohio Valley by the end of the period.  Dry/stable low-level
   conditions in the prefrontal sector will prevent associated
   thunderstorm development.

   ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/18/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z