SPC AC 191236

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorm areas are likely through tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A progressive, temporarily zonal mid/upper-level pattern will take
   shape over much of the CONUS by the end of the period, following the
   departure offshore from New England of a strong shortwave trough now
   located over the upper Great Lakes and adjoining states.  The
   associated surface cold front was drawn at 11Z from western Lake
   Ontario across eastern Lake Erie, western OH, southern IL, and
   southern MO.  The front will move offshore from New England and the
   Mid-Atlantic region by 00Z.  A preceding cold front -- initially
   over central FL -- will move southeastward down the peninsula
   through the day, and off south FL and the Keys this evening. 

   An isolated thunderstorm may occur near the latter front late this
   afternoon or early evening near the coast in southeast FL, where
   lift will be weak along with MLCINH, and forecast soundings show
   buoyancy extending into the-20 to -25 deg C layer briefly.  Very
   isolated lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out in the same
   front's snow-squall process over the northeastern CONUS (see SPC
   mesoscale discussion 154 for near-term details on the snow squall),
   or for a short period of trailing lake-effect banding off Lake
   Ontario this afternoon over northern NY.  However, in all those
   regimes, the areal lighting potential appears too isolated and brief
   to warrant categorical/10% coverage delineation.

   ..Edwards.. 02/19/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z