Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 200523
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few flashes of lighting are possible with showers across the
Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday night
across the lower Mississippi Valley/Arklatex region.
...Pacific Northwest...
Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the Pacific
Northwest along the cyclonic side of a digging jet that will
translate toward northern CA by the end of the period. With 500mb
temperatures cooling below -30C, cooling, steepening lapse rates
will become favorable for weak convection aided by weak buoyancy
related to marine influences. A few flashes of lightning can not be
ruled out with the stronger updrafts.
...Lower MS Valley/Arklatex...
Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico
toward TX later Sunday. This feature will induce a LLJ over
southeast TX that will focus into northern LA/southern AR after
sunset. Moisture advection atop the stable boundary layer should
contribute to adequate buoyancy for a threat of elevated convection
during the latter half of the period. Several NAM forecast soundings
suggest parcels lifted around 800mb would yield in excess of 500
J/kg MUCAPE, thus isolated thunderstorms are expected within the
warm advection regime late.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/20/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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