Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201254
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lighting flashes will be possible with showers across parts of
the Northwest today. Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across
portions of the lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaTex region.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will
overspread much of the Pacific Northwest as an upper trough digs
southeastward over this region. Cooling temperature profiles at
low/mid levels and steepening lapse rates should prove favorable for
low-topped convection. Very weak instability may be sufficient for
occasional lightning flashes over parts of western WA/OR through the
day with the strongest updrafts. A separate area of isolated
thunderstorm potential may also exist over portions of northern ID
and vicinity, where better large-scale ascent associated with the
upper trough should overlap weak buoyancy this afternoon.
Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject over
northern Mexico and towards TX late tonight. Ahead of this feature,
low-level warm/moist advection will develop over the western Gulf of
Mexico and into the lower MS Valley/ArkLaTex region. This moisture
advection atop a stable boundary layer should contribute to adequate
instability (MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg) to support isolated
thunderstorms, mainly after 06Z.
..Gleason.. 02/20/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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