Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201942
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lighting flashes will be possible with showers across parts of
the Northwest this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms may
occur late tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley/ArkLaTex region.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding the general thunderstorm
threat in the Pacific Northwest and lower MS Valley.
..Dean.. 02/20/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022/
...Pacific Northwest...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough digging toward the WA/OR
coast. Cold temperatures aloft and strong onshore flow will pose a
risk of isolated lightning flashes throughout the forecast period in
this area. More diurnally-driven thunderstorms are possible farther
east over portions of eastern WA/OR and northern ID as the steeper
lapse rates overspread the region.
...Lower MS Valley...
Southerly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen tonight over
the Arklatex region, helping to transport Gulf moisture northward
and slowly destabilize the region. Enhanced warm-advection and lift
may lead to a few elevated thunderstorms after 06z. No severe storms
are forecast.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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