Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 210023
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lighting flashes remain possible with showers across parts of
the Northwest this evening. Isolated thunderstorms may occur late
tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaTex
region.
...01z Update...
Numerous showers continue along the cyclonic side of the digging jet
this evening across western WA/OR. While 00z sounding from UIL
exhibited around 300 J/kg SBCAPE, seemingly more than enough for
lightning discharge, very few flashes have been observed with this
activity. Will maintain low thunder probabilities for this region
for this evening.
LLJ is expected to slowly strengthen tonight across east TX into the
lower MS Valley. Buoyancy remains weak within this corridor early
this evening, but continued moistening should eventually lead to
adequate instability for elevated convection late tonight.
..Darrow.. 02/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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