Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 230503
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave impulse embedded within large-scale southwesterly flow
aloft will shift northeast from the southern Plains to the Ohio
Valley during the day, before weakening as it approaches the
Mid-Atlantic overnight. While a near-surface arctic airmass will be
in place across the southern Plains and portions of the Midwest,
strong midlevel warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates will
result in modest elevated instability. Isolated thunderstorms with
wintry mixed precipitation are likely to be ongoing early this
morning across parts of north Texas into southern OK, spreading
east/northeast into the Mid-South through the day. A second round of
warm advection-driven wintry mixed precipitation will be possible
late tonight into Thursday morning.
Showers may linger along a decaying frontal boundary from parts of
AL/GA into the lee of the Appalachians today. However, weakening
vertical shear and limited forcing for ascent amid meager
instability should limit thunderstorm activity.
Isolated, low-topped convection is possible across parts of far
southern CA into parts of AZ/NM/southwest CO beneath an ejecting
western upper-level trough. Steep lapse rates from near the surface
to around 700 mb will support MUCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg amid
strong forcing, and isolated thunderstorms are possible.
..Leitman.. 02/23/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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