Feb 23, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 23 12:44:08 UTC 2022 (20220223 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220223 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220223 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220223 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220223 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220223 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231244

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

   Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   In mid/upper levels, deep troughing predominates over the western
   CONUS, with intermittently closed cyclonic flow centered over NV. 
   The synoptic trough will lose some amplitude through the period, but
   remain strong and well-defined, as it moves eastward to a position
   at 12Z tomorrow from eastern WY to central CO, the Four Corners
   area, and southwestern AZ/northern Baja.  Marginal low/middle-level
   moisture, favorable large-scale DCVA/lift, related steep midlevel
   lapse rates, and resulting weak buoyancy will promote isolated
   thunderstorm potential in a corridor of cyclonic flow from southern
   CA to the Four Corners. 

   Downstream southwesterly flow will prevail over the central CONUS,
   gradually becoming westerly with eastward extent into the Atlantic
   Coast States.  A weak/embedded shortwave trough -- initially located
   over parts of northeast TX to southeastern NM and far west TX --
   will eject northeastward rapidly, reaching parts of KY by 00Z, and
   NJ by 12Z in a much-weakened condition.  Until then, associated
   low-level warm/moist advection to its east and south -- elevated
   atop an intense post-frontal cold/stable layer where north of the
   frontal zone described below -- will support sporadic thunder.  This
   will include bouts of lightning accompanying sleet and freezing rain
   from an ongoing/expanding episode over north-central/northwest TX
   and southern OK, across more of OK/AR through afternoon.  Forecast
   soundings suggest 200-700 J/kg MUCAPE may develop over the cold-
   frontal layer, and isolated subsevere hail may occur in the most
   intense cores already yielding sleet and freezing rain.

   At the surface, a cold front was drawn at 11Z from the Adirondacks
   across central PA, southwestern VA, eastern TN, northwestern AL,
   southwestern MS, to near GLS and LRD, across northern Coahuila and
   northeastern Chihuahua, to central/north-central NM.  By 00Z, this
   boundary should extend from the Delmarva Peninsula to central/
   southwestern GA, southern portions of AL/MS/LA, and just offshore
   from most of the TX Coast, to near BRO.  By 12Z, the front should
   move little from LA southwestward while retreating inland across
   central and perhaps northern parts of MS/AL/GA.

   ..Edwards/Gleason.. 02/23/2022

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