Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 240545
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough across the Southwest Thursday morning will
shift across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley by early Friday
morning. At the surface, the frontal zone across southern Louisiana
Mississippi, and Alabama will shift slightly northward in response
to the strengthening low-level flow ahead of the advancing trough
before accelerating southeast Thursday Night.
...Southeast...
Strengthening low-level flow will moisten the low-level environment
ahead of a surface cold front from southeast Louisiana across
central Mississippi and into northern Alabama through the day.
Considerable surface heating is anticipated ahead of the front with
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. This may lead to some weak
instability around 500 to 750 J/kg to develop immediately ahead of
the surface front. A warm nose around 750mb should limit any deep
convection within the warm sector and keep it focused along the
front. However, storm motion may lead to storm propagation to the
cool side of the front relatively quickly. Therefore, even if any
stronger cells can develop along the front, the residence time of
these storms in the warm sector may be limited which would also aid
in keeping storms below severe limits. Therefore, the Day 2 marginal
was removed given the latest forecast trends.
..Bentley/Lyons.. 02/24/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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