Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 261259
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States
today or tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
Little or no thunderstorm potential is expected across the CONUS
today and tonight owing to the prevalence of continental
trajectories and dry/stable conditions.
As possible exceptions, a lightning flash or two may occur tonight
across northeast Texas, Arkansas, and/or northern Louisiana
coincident with weak elevated buoyancy and increasing warm/moist
advection. However, any such coverage and potential should remain
below 10 percent owing to the marginality of the thermodynamic
environment. Additionally, a few offshore lightning flashes may also
be possible late tonight off the coast of the Pacific Northwest as
forcing for ascent and a steepening of lapse rates occurs attendant
to an approaching shortwave trough.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/26/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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