Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 261930
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight across southern
Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
...20Z Outlook Update...
The prior outlook is being maintained with no changes.
...Pacific Coast...
Initially amplified mid-level ridging near/inland of the Pacific
coast is forecast to become increasingly suppressed through late
tonight by an inland migrating short wave impulse. It appears that
this will be accompanied by steepening lapse rates associated with
at least modest mid-level cooling (including a cold core with 500 mb
temps of -22 to -28C) west of the Cascades through the northwestern
California Coast Ranges. While forecast soundings suggest that
layers of very weak CAPE may also develop inland overnight, these
are generally rooted near or above the freezing level, with profiles
suggestive of only very limited potential for lightning production.
As such, probabilities for thunderstorms are being maintained below
the minimum threshold for a categorical thunderstorm area.
..Kerr.. 02/26/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022/
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will remain entrenched across the central
CONUS today, mitigating the potential for deep convection.
Thunderstorm chances will gradually increase late this evening and
into the overnight hours across southern AR and northern LA as lift
increases in the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet and
within a weak mid-level warm advection regime. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient instability rooted near 600 mb and EL
temperatures near -20 C will support the potential for a handful of
lightning strikes over the region.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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