Feb 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 27 05:38:21 UTC 2022 (20220227 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220227 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220227 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220227 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220227 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220227 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270538

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Sunday through Sunday night.

   Elevated convection is possible north of a surface front across the
   Southeast US. However, forecast soundings show limited instability
   and therefore, any lightning threat is expected to remain isolated. 

   In the Northeast, shallow, surface-based convection is expected to
   develop from the late morning through the afternoon and into the
   early evening. Thermal profiles entirely below zero and the shallow
   nature of the convection should preclude thunderstorm potential,
   with snow squalls as the greater threat. 

   Weak elevated instability may develop off the California/Oregon
   coast this evening into tonight. Elevated instability may be
   sufficient for a few lightning flashes, but the greatest threat is
   expected to remain well offshore.

   ..Bentley/Weinman.. 02/27/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z