Feb 27, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 27 16:14:04 UTC 2022 (20220227 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220227 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220227 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220227 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220227 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220227 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271614

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1014 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms is negligible across the U.S. today and
   tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive surface high will remain entrenched across the central
   CONUS today, limiting the potential for deep convection for most of
   the country. A weak cold front continues to push east/southeastward
   across the southeastern U.S., and will eventually move offshore
   later today. This may support a few offshore thunderstorms late this
   evening off the FL/GA/SC coast. Across the Pacific Northwest,
   onshore flow will continue to bring scattered precipitation to
   western OR/WA, but both observed and forecast thermodynamic profiles
   appear too marginal to support much lightning potential.

   ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/27/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z