SPC AC 271945

   Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022

   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
   U.S. late today through tonight, but a few lightning flashes might
   be possible in heavy snow squalls spreading into northern New
   England and northern New York State late this afternoon.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...

   ...Upstate New York and northern New England...
   A deep mid-level trough emerging from the Arctic latitudes continues
   to dig toward the northern Atlantic coast, accompanied by strong
   lower/mid tropospheric cooling and intensifying cyclonic mid-level
   flow across much of the Northeast.  One particular belt of stronger
   low-level cooling (centered around the 850 mb level) is currently
   spreading across and southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley through
   the Lake Ontario region, and appears to be providing the primary
   focus for weak boundary-layer based destabilization supportive of
   bands of developing convection.  

   While some lightning has been observed across parts of southeastern
   Ontario into southern Quebec, convection is rooted within a mostly
   sub-freezing boundary layer, and low-topped, with equilibrium levels
   peaking around 10-11,000 feet AGL.  This is not expected to change
   substantively while overspreading much of northern New England and
   northern New York State through early evening, so probabilities for
   thunderstorms still appear to remain less than the 10 percent
   minimum threshold for a categorical thunderstorm area.  However,
   convection may still be impactful, accompanied by periods of heavy
   snow squalls with strong wind gusts and sharply reduced
   visibilities.

   ..Kerr.. 02/27/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive surface high will remain entrenched across the central
   CONUS today, limiting the potential for deep convection for most of
   the country. A weak cold front continues to push east/southeastward
   across the southeastern U.S., and will eventually move offshore
   later today. This may support a few offshore thunderstorms late this
   evening off the FL/GA/SC coast. Across the Pacific Northwest,
   onshore flow will continue to bring scattered precipitation to
   western OR/WA, but both observed and forecast thermodynamic profiles
   appear too marginal to support much lightning potential.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z