Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281959
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
Valid 282000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Florida
and far southeast Georgia this afternoon/evening.
...Synopsis...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the Atlantic Ocean east
of Florida where better instability is present over the Gulf Stream.
A few thunderstorms have formed along the northeast
Florida/southeast Georgia Coast but have since moved into the
Atlantic. A few additional storms may develop across land areas this
afternoon and evening, but the threat is expected to stay mostly
isolated.
..Bentley.. 02/28/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0947 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022/
...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential today will largely be limited for most of the
country amid modest height rises across the western/central CONUS
and persistent surface high pressure from the southern Plains into
the Northeast. Although somewhat poor mid/upper-level lapse rates
were sampled across northeast FL in 12Z soundings, thermal profiles
should improve through the day as a weak upper-level wave approaches
the region and cools temperatures aloft. Shallow convection is
already noted across northern FL this morning, and this activity
should gradually deepen through the day as profiles become more
supportive of deeper convection. Isolated thunderstorms across
northern FL should increase in coverage along the FL/GA coast late
this afternoon before moving offshore tonight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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