Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 020521
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Tue Mar 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States on
Wednesday.
...Discussion...
Dry, stable conditions will prevail across most of the lower 48
states Wednesday as continental air mass and offshore flow prevail
along the Atlantic/Gulf coasts. One exception is across the Pacific
Northwest where weak buoyancy will be noted ahead of an incoming
short-wave trough. NAM forecast soundings for the extreme
northwestern portions of WA suggest 100+ J/kg MUCAPE will be
maintained across this region, where moist onshore flow prevails
beneath cold mid-level temperatures. While weak low-topped
convection will be noted ahead of the short wave, the likelihood for
more than a few flashes of lightning appears minimal. For these
reasons thunderstorm probabilities will remain below 10 percent.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/02/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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