Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 030527
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Wed Mar 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern
California Thursday night.
...Southern CA...
Strong mid-level height falls (150m in 12hr) are forecast to
spread/develop across southern CA during the latter half of the
period in response to a strong trough that will move onshore around
daybreak Friday. Very strong 500mb speed max is expected to
translate through the base of this approaching trough toward the
northern Baja Peninsula, with a pronounced exit region of this jet
forecast across southern CA. Focused low-level convergence/ascent
ahead of a secondary offshore surface front will contribute to
scattered convection. Forecast soundings suggest a few hundred J/kg
SBCAPE is likely to develop within a strong-flow environment. NAM
11z sounding at SAN exhibits surface-6km shear in excess of 50kt,
350 J/kg SBCAPE, with sufficient veering to warrant some risk for
weak low-topped supercells. Low-level shear is forecast to be
marginal, and instability is likely too meager to warrant a
severe-hail threat. However, gusty winds may be noted with
convection that develops after midnight ahead of the approaching
front.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/03/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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