Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031240
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2022
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern
California tonight.
...Southern California...
Strong mid-level height falls (150m in 12hr) will overspread
southern California and the Southwest Deserts tonight in advance of
a southern-stream trough that will reach the SoCal coast early
Friday morning. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening
low/mid-level lapse rates, along with a steady influx of low-level
moisture, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms tonight,
initially offshore but subsequently into the coastal areas of SoCal.
A couple hundred J/kg of SBCAPE could support some
stronger/sustained low-topped thunderstorms late tonight/early
Friday (09z-12z), potentially a few with weak/transient supercell
characteristics owing to modest low-level hodograph curvature. Some
gustier convectively related winds could materialize, but
severe-caliber storms currently seem unlikely.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 03/03/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
