SPC AC 031956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CST Thu Mar 03 2022

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern
   California tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Analysis of the latest model and observational data continues to
   suggest that mid-level destabilization across southern California,
   expected to occur overnight as a mid-level low approaches the
   region, will support low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms. 
   Therefore, no changes appear to be needed with respect to the
   ongoing oulook.

   ..Goss.. 03/03/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2022/

   ...Southern CA...
   No changes have been made to the existing forecast.  A compact upper
   low is approaching southern CA.  This feature will be accompanied by
   a pocket of cold temperatures aloft, marginal instability, and
   enhanced large-scale lift.  This should be sufficient for scattered
   showers and a few thunderstorms along/behind the front as it moves
   ashore after midnight. Gusty winds or small hail could accompany the
   strongest cells, but organized severe storms appear unlikely.

   ...Central CA...
   A burst of lightning activity has been recently noted along a line
   of convection extending roughly from San Jose to west of Sacramento.
    While there is some potential that further lightning flashes will
   occur in this region, weak and weakening instability fields suggest
   that the overall threat is expected to remain below 10% coverage.

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